Workshop A: Agriculture and Water Infrastructure
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
Greetings. It is an honor to participate in these discussions of economic development here in person in historic Kabul. And it has been an honor to have conferred with government specialists and others on the vital questions on agriculture.
I extend our sympathy for those killed and suffering from the Herat earthquakes, and look forward to the earliest coming of the day when the nation of Afghanistan can mount full defences and full rescue operations against any kind of disaster.
All across Eurasia, there is the dawning of a new era of development. The 10-year old Belt and Road Initiative has made a huge impact. The BRICS-Five (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will be the BRICS—11 in two months, including the direct neighbors of Afghanistan–Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Worldwide, there is a new dynamic of development, by and for all peoples in the Global Majority.
Of course, we know that the future depends on getting through the present-day, terrible narrow passage of the danger of World War III, from the dying old order.
Let’s look at what first stands out about the Belt and Road in Eurasia. It can be seen on this world map. There is the growing CONNECTIVITY—the trans-continental transportation corridors. There is China to Europe; the Southeast Asia routes. The International North-South Transport Corridor from Russia to eastern Africa. There is the new train to Afghanistan from China, going through Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. The proposed Trans Afghan Railway will connect Afghanistan to the whole Eurasian continent, and also to the sea, through Pakistan.
But equally dramatic is the growing PRODUCTIVITY in the Belt and Road domain. Look at agriculture volumes. Wheat, for example. Starting from 1993, the wheat output in the three BRICS countries of Eurasia—Russia, India, China–has increased 65 percent in the last 30 years, from around 207 metric tons in 1993, to nearly 350 this year, tons this year. China and India became self-sufficient in basic grains as of the 1980s, which includes rice, of course, and continued this success. Russia has become the world’s leading wheat exporter. This progress must be the norm.
This is the positive context in which we place our high expectations and efforts for uplifting agriculture in Afghanistan to take its place in this progress. Afghanistan up until the 1970s, was self-sufficient in food. Then came the half century of forced underproduction. But what we are now seeing in action is the commitment and interventions to make Afghanistan self-sufficient to the point of abundance and exports—as soon as possible, despite all the present-day, extreme difficulties and hardship.
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
By Necessity, A New Model
There is no agriculture development model to be easily copied over into Afghanistan and made to work. The 40 million people are in an historic condition of crisis, of need and underproduction of food, energy, water, and everything, directly from the impact of decades of foreign occupation, warfare, destruction, and now, attempted foreign financial strangulation. So, in effect, what the Afghan government is doing now in agriculture amounts to a new model.
The government is doing the impossible! How? By doing two things at once. First, taking any and all emergency measures to provide food relief, and emergency farming inputs in the immediate term. And second, launching initiatives for the longer term at the same time. First, to recap the immediate situation. Since the government took back the nation in August, 2021, we are now in the third planting season, and about the fifth farrowing cycle. The measures taken have worked. Congratulations. The wheat harvest this past Summer, of some 5 million metric tons is an achievement. The three other grains rose as well. I understand the measures have included repairs to irrigation where possible; as much certified seed as possible and similar actions.
Secondly, at the same time there are two outstanding achievements toward the long term: The start up last year of the Qosh Tepa Canal. And the near elimination of opium poppy cultivation, last season, and ongoing. These are transformational. Congratulations again
It goes without saying, that the bottleneck preventing doing more, is the lack of funding, which is for discussion in another session, and perhaps later, here.
Three Time Phases, One Principle
Our conference sponsor, the Ibn Sina R & D Center has encouraged our discussion to think in concrete terms of short, medium and long term goals and actions.
We can do that in five basic areas: crops, livestock and fisheries, horticulture and specialties, water and land, and rural life. I will address just a few of those areas for each time phase.
One principle remains constant: Progress is measured in increasing output per unit area. This comes through targeted action to develop and apply better science, inputs and the “culture” of agriculture. We can measure progress by higher energy flux density per unit area. By this principle, we can have successful agriculture on the Moon, or in the Arctic, or the deserts, as long as we can supply the organized, high energy flows and density per relevant unit area.
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
To restate the principle: All so-called “natural” resources are man-made. There are very diverse landforms on Earth, and degrees of water resources, but they can all be made fruitful. Russia is lucky to have the flat, black soils—the chernozems. China has a very dry north, and had to build its South-to-North Canal, from the Yangtze Basin to the Yellow River Basin. Afghanistan—the mountain and valley nation—is legendary for spectacular topography, and its long history of beautiful river valley agriculture.
In the short term, the priorities are clear: Hold the line to keep up the existing level of production, and lay the basis for future increased output/unit area.
For crops, this means the 2024 wheat harvest should go above the 2023 volume of 5 million tons. The variables include: certified seed, fertilizer, fuel, support for farm families, and such factors. Same for the other grains. For livestock, measures are critical to reduce losses this Winter from the cold, and fodder problems. It is estimated that well over 315,000 animals cattle, sheep and goats were lost last Winter. For 2024, the goal is to prevent these kinds of losses. Hold the line, and increase the livestock inventory.
Supporting horticulture also has measures to be taken in the short term, actions to stabilize orchards, nut and olive groves, and row crops. These heritage fruits, and vegetables too, of Afghanistan are legendary—the stone fruits, quince, pears, apples and the famous pomegranate; the many nuts; the melons and much more. For all kinds of production, including fisheries as well, continuing work on the waterworks is critical—to restore whatever is in place and reparable for irrigation, local public water supply, and for potential processing, mining and other use.
In addition, we note three special factors in the short term:
First, support the farmers and families who are NOT growing opium poppy. This is an international responsibility. This has been stated by Kabul government representatives. Internationally, Dr. Pino Arlacchi is among the strongest voices and authorities calling for this. He will speak. Farmers must inputs for other crops, fuel and all other necessities.
In this regard, look at the lower Helmand River Basin, once famous for opium poppy, and see the vast food output potential from the new irrigation works now underway, associated with the Kamal Khan Dam. The dam itself was completed in early 2021, I understand. Now, there is work underway to build out the canal system for irrigation. This will provide water to 50,000 hectares. That alone, even with a modest yield per hectare will add tons of wheat to the national harvest.
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
Finally, a short term factor is always better seeds. For wheat, 11 different locations in Afghanistan were looked at—with differing local agro-climatic zone conditions, over 13 growing seasons (2003-2016), and customized wheat seeds were able to increase output per unit area significantly. The proof is there. All other factors were held constant. Instead of 2.5 tons per hectare—the national norm for irrigated wheat in Afghanistan, there were yields achieved ranging from 3.58 to 5.97 tons per hectare. Just raising Afghanistan’s average of 2.5 t/h to that of India’s 3.5h, would make a huge difference.
The research was done by the Mexico-based International Wheat and Corn Improvement Center, started in the 1940s to be a world benefit. We call on them to go beyond studies and words, and make these varieties available. There are similar breakthrough varieties in China, thanks to work and inspiration there from Yuan Longping, the Father of Hybrid rice. It is of short term priority to support the centers for wheat germ plasm R & D in Afghanistan, and build up all aspects of the domestic supply chain for high-yield wheat and other grain seeds. The MAIL has the list of priorities and challenges.
I TAKE AN ASIDE HERE. The historic wheat model from Mexico and India in the 1960s applies here and now in Afghanistan. The man known as the Father of Wheat in India died just a month ago, Dr. Swaminathan. He was 98 years old. In the 1960s, he took the new high yield wheat seeds from Mexico, that he had worked on with Dr. Norman Borlaug, to the village of Patiala in the Punjab. There, farmers had no reliable yields. It was uncertain if they had enough to eat season to season. The new seeds were seen with suspicion. But a few farmers tried them, especially young farmers. And the yields from then on produced reliably in excess of farmers needs. There is more to the story for another time. In order to make the best use of new seeds and methods, they set up the YFI—Young Farmers of India in the 1960s, which set up clubs from village to village. Now some of the original members are still active in the Young Farmers, at the age of 90! That’s the short term.
In the medium term, the goal is to realize key improvements of all kinds. For crops, wheat production, for example, should be at or near the level of self-sufficiency, at minimum 7 mmt. Even if the Qush Tepa Canal
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
is not yet fully operational, the smaller scale irrigation improvements in different locations, should increase wheat output. The Kamal Khan Dam Canal system shows the point. The additional critical effect of water infrastructure, besides food output, is it will stabilize rural life, for health. The same goes for urban centers, industry and all purposes.
If the sheep, goat and cattle numbers are made stable over the short term, then enabling shepherds and farmers to improve the herd’s genetics, and do other animal husbandry practices, can result in a near-term increase in meat, wool and dairy output, and in fisheries and poultry. The MAIL knows what has to be done. Their list of challenges and priorities includes everything from veterinary services, to tracking disease outbreaks, and improving fodder and shelter.
There are open questions. For example, should a new sheep breed be introduced? Is there is a goal of having more meat per animal? This may come up in discussion. Bob Baker, my husband who is here, has raised sheep, and conferred with people on this subject. He also is experienced in soybeans, which is another open question —should soybeans be really pushed in Afghanistan?
For horticulture, putting in place all the support systems of germ plasm R&D, to plant disease fighting, and extension support to farmers, is a must. The same principle applies in this domain as for the grains: Increasing weight and quality per unit area. Again the MAIL has the particulars. New varieties of high-quality fruits, vegetables and nuts can be introduced, appropriate for the differing agro-climatic zones of the different provinces.
I show one example, only to make the point—a new apple variety, because it was news when I left home this week. This new apple has a tree that stays small, and easy to harvest from, and barely needs pruning. It bears well, and is disease-resistant, especially to what’s called fire blight. The tree tolerates drought.
It’s from the Apple Architecture team at the University of Maryland, near my home.
We need a mobilization for saplings and seedstock.
Besides increased output, in the medium term, food chains need to be in place for storing, processing, packaging and shipping fresh fruit and vegetables, meats and dairy products, as well as bread and grain products.
A few special factors stand out for the medium term.
First, there is the problem of INTERDEPENDENCY in increasing the food supply, meaning that things depend upon each other, but they are all short. For example, if more meat is produced, how does it reach consumers,
By Marcia Merry Baker & Robert “Bob” Baker - Agriculture Commission, Schiller Institute, USA
without electricity for refrigeration and shipping?
One idea for meat, that may or may not be useful, is the slaughtering and hauling on trailer trucks. Bob Baker can say more about this.
What about storage capacity for the grains? More handling and storage capacity for livestock feed? Fresh fruits and vegetables for home and export are extremely dependent on handling capacity.
There is no pat answer to these challenges, but trying to make the best of it, points up the need to also build up select agriculture complexes. These are designated locations provided with logistics, water, power and transport. They can boost production and food availability, near major urban centers, while the entire national productive platform is still under improvement. In May this year, MAIL announced the goal of building agriculture complexes. Deputy MAIL Minister Fazi Bari Fazli said that their plans are, “to establish large agricultural complexes in the areas of Jalalabad, Herat, Qoshtipa, in the south of Helmand, and Kandahar.”
Secondly, as of the middle term, agriculture education programs need to be up and running. There are great benefits from all forms of this, including extension services from colleges, and the Ministry of Agriculture directly, and spreading knowledge through cooperatives and other clubs. Exchange programs are important, with China, Kazakhstan, for example.
Finally, mechanization. This becomes realistic in the medium term. Small-scale equipment, as in the Philippines, has a role in some places.
In the longer term, we are back to the big picture we started with of the Eurasian continental development drive, only now with Afghanistan in the front ranks of progress in productivity. The significance of the Qush Tepa Canal is best seen in this perspective. Its physical economic impact is obvious. It will guarantee the means to national food self-sufficiency. The fact of its initiation exemplifies the government’s commitment to making targeted actions that will transform and uplift the nation. In that sense, it is a flagship project for productivity.
Another flagship project—which will be discussed more in the Transportation workshop session, is the Trans-Afghan Railway. It will cross three main river basins, and six provinces, home to over nine million people, with non-linear positive effects. It will figure greatly in agriculture advancement, carrying production to market, inputs to farming, and people back and forth.
Thus, the character of the longer term is both that the goal of national food self-sufficiency will be achieved, and new development goals will be in motion.
A few specifics on grain:
The national production of wheat, rice, corn and barley, can be expected to be in the range of 11 to 13 million metric tons. The grains figure is to provide sufficiency for a population between 37 and 45 million . This goal is based on the standard modern metric of a third of a metric ton of grain per person, allowing for direct consumption, and indirect consumption through the livestock feed chain. The relative shares of animal protein in the diet, plus fish, based on national preferences, will determine the numbers of the differing animals, plus size of the fisheries.
For reference to now: At present, this year’s harvest was in the range of 5.810 mmt, which is above the five year average of 5.217 mmt. But at the third-of-a-ton per person, for 37 million people to be well-fed the total grains harvest needs to be 11 million tons or so. We need to DOUBLE grain production. This goes for Africa and much of the world.
On other foods in the diet, the long term will see an abundance of the fruits, vegetables and nuts and specialties, for which Afghanistan’s valleys were famous on the ancient Silk Road. This can come for all the reasons we have identified—good seedstock, farming practices, inputs and plentiful water, power and mechanization.
The paradox is, as all this comes into being, there will be a smaller and smaller share of the total population involved in agriculture directly. They will be in other jobs and pursuits—from factory work, to teaching, health care, science, and exploring space!
The commitment to bring this beautiful miracle about—whose specifics are being discussed here at this conference—is an important part of the agenda of the Global Majority, seeing a future of development, and a long-overdue end of the era of domination and warfare.
I hear a saying from the Chinese Father of Hybrid Rice—Yuan Longping: “We are like seeds. We should grow to be good people.” Together.