Agriculture
THE ROAD TO GO
The reality in Afghanistan, that 85 percent of the population is involved in agriculture—food and fiber, but over 90 percent of the population lacks enough to eat, and 20 million –half the population, requires emergency food relief, signifies that measures to transform the economy must accompany life-saving food aid. Government initiatives are underway to make this happen.
A concrete example is the start of construction in March 2022 of the flagship canal project in the north, in Balkh Province, to divert some of the mountain run-off into a 280 km canal running through three provinces, which will irrigate a half million hectares of land. “The country will reach self-sufficiency in agriculture after the construction of the canal,” said Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, at the ceremony to announce the program. The Qush Tapa Canal mega project, to be completed by 2027 or sooner, is described elsewhere in this program. There are other leading initiatives.
Moreover, the growing worldwide momentum for a new international financial architecture for development, means that concrete projects both in Afghanistan and all across Eurasia, can be realized through collaboration with nations in associations including the Belt and Road Initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO,) the Eurasian Economic Union, and others, especially the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Iran has now applied for BRICS membership, as has Argentina. Afghanistan is among those expressing interest to do so, along with Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
Afghanistan has a rich heritage of agriculture achievement. Three traditional sectors of food and fiber are famous historically.
- Wheat, its staple grain, originated in Southwest Asia, in the region now modern Syria, and has been grown throughout the region since the earliest centuries of domesticated plantlife.
- Sheep raising in the area of Afghanistan goes back 9000 years; lamb features in the national cuisine.
- The woolen carpets of Afghanistan are world famous for their beauty and craftsmanship, involving expert animal husbandry, wool preparation and weaving.
Thirdly, the specialty crops of the nation are outstanding, and like the carpets and prayer rugs, were sought after in the time of trade along the ancient Silk Road: stone fruits; grapes and raisins, pomegranates, melons, and nuts of all kinds, including pine nuts. Other foods and fibers also figure in the history and future of the nation’s agriculture, from cotton, to saffron, to poultry, fish, and the newly-introduced soybean.
The resumption of food self-sufficiency and agriculture output in Afghanistan depends on raising up the productive platform of the entire national economy, by means of an infrastructure transformation—water management, power, public health, transportation, education and more, to engage all of the 40 million Afghani people, the largest population of any of the Central Afghan countries.
What follows are first, features of a food secure Afghanistan, based on food self-sufficiency; secondly, in contrast, the scale of emergency aid urgently required right now, for both food relief and agriculture support; and finally, the near term measures underway to transform agriculture into high-tech 21st Century production.
DOUBLE DOMESTIC FOOD PRODUCTION
Baseline Production
The volume of annual wheat production—the national staple food—can be doubled in Afghanistan to provide the baseline for food security. This means producing a minimum volume of 8 million metric tons (mmt) annually.
In recent years, output has been under 5 mmt a year, and also highly up and down from year to year. Therefore grain imports, or grain-equivalence in flour, has had to be 1.5-2.5 mmt a year in commercial or donated amounts, which even then, did not provide enough for adequate consumption. Up until the mid-1970s, Afghanistan was self-sufficient in wheat (though in need of better nutrition,) but this declined, under the sequence of decades of strife and deliberate impoverishment imposed on the nation. But in a thriving economy, not only 8 mmt of wheat, but also other grains can be produced, e.g. more corn/maize, and barley for direct and indirect consumption (through the livestock chain). Plus, rice output must also reach the volumes necessary for national self-sufficiency.
The same point about increasing reliable, sufficient output in other key sectors of production— animal protein, fruits and vegetables, edible oils, can be made, as with wheat and grains, as is described below. Grain is the standard metric for self-sufficiency in all nations, varying by dietary preference, e.g. corn/maize in Mexico, or rice in the Philippines.
Flourishing River Basins
Afghanistan’s terrain is more than two-thirds mountains, and semi-arid, but with a sufficient volume of precipitation—mostly as run-off, that if impounded and organized by systems of dams and channels, will sustain modern farming to produce food in abundance. The traditional diet preferences of wheat—Afghanistan ranks highest in the world in per capita daily calories from wheat–plus rice, potatoes, fruits and vegetables, meats and dairy are all easily produced, given in a well-functioning economy.
The magnificent Hindu Kush range (an extension of the Himalayan Mountains) runs diagonally northeast-southwest. The Noshaq peak, highest in Afghanistan, has an elevation of 7,492 meters (24,580 feet). The northeastern mountain ranges receive about 1000 mm a year. The southwestern arid lands receive less than 150 mm a year.
Afghanistan may rank as the world’s foremost nation defined by river basins. There are five major ones: Amu Darya, Kabul/Indus, Northern, Helmand and Harirod-Murghab. The present-day population distribution corresponds to how these basins were historically developed for crops cultivation, orchards and grazing. The lesser rivers in each basin typically run for only three to four months of the year. Moreover, it is notable that these river basins have shared international boundaries.
The agro-ecology from place to place differs significantly from variations in terrain, altitude, temperature patterns and other basic factors. This allows for variety, not constraint.
In this respect, parts of Afghanistan have the same conditions and potentials as successful agriculture projects in other dry land/mountain sites, for example, in Australia—where the Snowy Mountain run-off is channeled; California, where the Sierra Madre Mountains run-off is captured and used; and in Chile.
The total land area of Afghanistan is 652,230 sq km, ranking it significantly larger than, for example, France or Spain. For reference, Afghanistan’s population of 40 million people is about the same as California, but its land area is larger, comparable to the state of Texas.
The profile of Afghan land use as of the decade of 2020s, in rough terms of share of 65 million hectares is:
- 17.5 mil ha of mountains, rocky area and rivers;
- 8 mil ha of desert;
- 1.9 mil ha of forests;
- 30 mil ha of pasture land;
- 7.8 mil ha of arable land.
The goal for food production is to irrigate more of the existing land in cultivation, expand that land area where possible—including land in the category of desert and other agriculture use, and to support the pasture-land use with modern methods.