second online conference
Ibn-E-Sina
Second online conference
On the 9th of April, 2023 Ibn-E-Sina operation, which is to prepare a comprehensive plan for the future economic development of Afghanistan, was organized by Schiller International Institute. The institute is an initiative of experts and Afghan experts living abroad, the second online conference was held.
Within the framework of this conference, the experts of Shiller International Institute and the Afghan experts living abroad presented their specialized articles to the participants of the conference.
Who is the Shiller Institute?
I founded the Schiller Institute in 1984 because I thought that foreign policy should be put on a new foundation that relations between nations work only when the best traditions of one nation complement the traditions of another nation. Therefore, the Shiller Institute wants to promote governance. Also, we want a fair economic system to be established in the world with a specific goal to overcome the backwardness of the global south and to establish a dialogue between civilizations.
What is our motivation about Afghanistan?
We know that some questions have been raised about why we want to help Afghanistan. Until now, all organizations have had their own agendas in Afghanistan, but I assure you that we do not have any hidden motives, we do not want to make money in Afghanistan, and we are not looking for any benefit. Also, we are not affiliated with any government nor do we hold any commercial interests. We are a completely independent organization and represent volunteers. We think that not only Afghanistan, but also the global South, is unfair and it is easy to succeed if proper conditions are provided to it. On the other hand, thanks to its work on development programs of Shiller Institute for decades, it has very good relations in many countries of Asia, compared to other regions of the world. And I believe that we can convince them to strengthen their economic and trade relations with Afghanistan.
Ibn-E-Sina operations
I was against Germany’s participation in the war in Afghanistan. When NATO left Afghanistan in 2021, I felt that now is an opportunity to develop Afghanistan economically. That’s why I worked together with the experts of the Schiller Institute on the economic development plan. And gave him the name of Ibn-E-Sina’s operation. Operation Ibn-E-Sina is a project that sets a vision for the economic transformation of Afghanistan, based on which Afghanistan will become a prosperous country. What the Shiller Institute offers is a comprehensive economic development program and an economic and scientific method based on the principles of physical economics. This method has been applied in every place that has led to successful industrialization, whether it was in the United States, whether it was in Germany, whether it was in Russia, or whether it was in China. Now the time has come for this to be applied in Afghanistan as well, a country that has been weakened by continuous wars for more than four decades that had nothing to do with them, but because of the geopolitical games played by the Great Britain. Sources from the game were launched. Also, the project of Ibn-E-Sina’s operation is completely in the hands of the Afghan experts who live abroad, and the specialists of the Schiller Institute will only provide their expert support.
Our experiences
In the early 1980s, we worked with Mexican President Lopez Portillo on a program for the economic integration of Latin America called Operation Juarez. And prepared the 40-year development program for India with the Prime Minister of India, Indira Gandhi, both of these programs have started to be implemented. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we proposed a program of the Asia-Europe Land Bridge, the New Silk Road, to connect the population and industrial centers of Europe with the development corridors of Asia.
My View on women
Unfortunately, half of Afghanistan’s population, which is women, does not have food security, and due to the lack of a proper health system, their lives and their children’s lives are in danger. That’s why I think that a comprehensive plan is the best way to protect women’s rights to restore Afghanistan’s economy.
Food and Agriculture - Prerequisites for Peace
The report on the current situation of agriculture and food in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan reveals two important features:
First: The Qosh Tepa Canal in the north creates the preconditions for safe and plentiful food supplies in the near future.
Second: The operations that have been launched for the preparation of emergency food should be carried out to the maximum extent.
Today’s severe problems should be seen as temporary problems until the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s high production platform becomes operational, and produces food products to meet all needs. This perspective favors the nations and peoples of the so-called Global South, which now constitute the global majority. The leading countries of the Global South want the sanctions imposed on the Islamic Emirate to end and the property of the Central Bank of Afghanistan to be returned, which is the legal property of the Islamic Emirate. And they support small measures related to infrastructure development and trade.
Qosh Tepa Canal
It is a welcome news at the international level that the first phase of the Qosh Tepa Canal irrigation project has been completed by 70 percent. According to reports, more than 7,000 jobs and 3,000 machines have been used in these efforts so far. With the use of quality seeds and fertilizers, 2 million metric tons of wheat can be produced and this will end the annual shortage of wheat in recent years.
Fulfillment of needs
The general challenge in terms of food volume is simply understandable. The current level of annual wheat production is less than 4 million metric tons, while more than 6 million tons forms the basis for subsistence. In this regard, the possibility of handing over the last promise of two million tons of wheat from Russia is very important. This commitment itself is in line with what is needed to close the current annual grain gap.
There is a severe shortage of emergency food items in the country. The World Food Program (WFP) reported that in 2022 about 1.14 million tons of food have been distributed in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. WFP probably gets 30% of that from Afghanistan, and in addition they distribute food purchase vouchers, so that people can buy food locally. At the same time, food prices are rising here, as they are all over the world.
Better data, more projects - increased productivity
In short, it is best to realize any increase in productivity by providing better information during existing agricultural operations. An example, which makes this point, is that trees of all kinds need to be cultivated and cared for – citrus, fruit trees, walnuts or pears, the apple family, etc. Turkey’s donation of 20,000 apple trees in 2022 is an example. In the same way, the improvement of agricultural methods can have a significant income, for example, viticulture.
Most important in this process can be the many farmer cooperatives, through which both seed stocks and knowledge can be transferred. This applies to all food production, from sheep to dairy cattle to fishing, and to food processing.
Banking, loans and financial affairs
Credit for rebuilding and developing Afghanistan's economy
In these difficult circumstances, obtaining loans for Afghanistan’s reconstruction and development projects will largely depend on the BRICS group of countries and the Afghanistan Development Bank, the New Development Bank (NDB). Development banks of individual major countries, such as the Export-Import or Development Bank of China, can play a leading role in providing loans for construction and manufacturing in Afghanistan. The New Development Bank of Afghanistan (NDB) can directly raise funds for projects in Afghanistan through the issuance and sale of special shares.
All Afghans, even those living abroad, should be given this opportunity as soon as possible to participate in the spirit of patriotism. These projects will also benefit the connectivity and productivity of the entire South Asian region.
As soon as the sanctions imposed on Afghanistan are over, the issue of development shares will be in the hands of the Bank of Afghanistan itself. But a multilateral development bank can also provide it.
Credit expansion and currency growth
According to the report, Afghanistan’s tax revenue is about 150 billion Afghanis per year until 2022, which is roughly equivalent to 1.6 billion dollars, and the Afghani is basically depreciated against the US dollar and the Chinese renminbi (Yuan). The value is relatively stable. If 1-2 billion Afghanis per year (equivalent to 10-20 million dollars) of this income were to be dedicated to a pool of financial resources to support new infrastructure projects, the Multilateral Development Bank could use this amount. The money offered new shares worth five times the money. This may seem like a very small amount compared to the development needs, but if Afghans participate in the financing of the new development bank’s special Afghan shares, the same amount of new Afghanis can be printed in the country and as remittances from abroad. Can be used Putting more money into circulation leads to more economic activity.
Support from national banks
Alternatively, donor countries and their national banks can finance Afghanistan’s infrastructure development through joint lending agreements with multinational development banks such as the NDB. Contractors and employees involved in development projects must be paid in currencies other than dollars or euros, as long as sanctions remain in place, and these currencies must include Afghanis.
Government-to-Government Grants
Afghanistan will be in a better state when the nations recognize the Afghan government and give them free and proper assistance. This assistance can be, for example, electricity supply, equipment or coal. The Afghan government can then offer new short-term or medium-term shares or give loans to Afghan companies and the general public in return for the revenue they receive from the sale of these assets.
Increasing electricity for the development of Afghanistan
Electricity, as it is believed, is not just a commodity that is tied to a market price. Rather, electricity is the key to the rapid economic development of mankind. With abundant and cheap electricity, with the help of other economic institutions, an economy can be created
It is entering a new world: it can operate electric high-speed trains and use advanced electronic medical machines such as MRI and computed tomography scans in hospitals.
However, in 2019, electricity consumption in Afghanistan was only 158 kilowatts (158 kWh) per year. This places Afghanistan in the lowest position of 175 among other countries. My report will focus on how Afghanistan can become a producer of cheap electricity by increasing the power generation capacity in the right country. It will be implemented from 25 to 30 years, until the year 2050, that is, during the lifetime of one generation.
In order for a power system to achieve a given goal, we must understand what that goal is. The report estimates that Afghanistan will achieve a level of electricity comparable to that of France, which consumes 6,700 kilowatt-hours of electricity per person per year. This level is not a goal of the spine; we can set it higher or lower through logical discussion. We have a guide to determine the level of electricity consumption
Afghanistan may be looking to become a modern country. According to the level of electricity consumption, we can determine the level of electricity production in Afghanistan.
Increase power output
Based on the technical feasibility of electricity generation sites, as well as their suitability for Afghanistan, according to the Shiller Institute, Afghanistan should obtain its electricity needs from the following sources:
(27%) from nuclear power plants.
(25%) from coal-fired power plants.
(25%) from natural gas power plants.
(23%) from hydropower plants.
As a result of the implementation of this plan, the electricity production level will increase from 600 megawatts (600 MW) in 2023 to 50651 megawatts (50651 MW) in 2050.
In the first phase, Afghanistan will import electricity plants with interest. According to the new loans or credit system that we propose, Afghanistan will pay 1% to 3% interest. Finally, Afghanistan will provide companies and to develop skilled labor force, to build own power plants.
Broad benefits of nuclear power
9000 megawatts (9000 MW) of electricity should be produced in the nuclear power plant. It is available in small nuclear reactors that can produce 250 megawatts of electricity.
It may be asked why 27% of power plants should be nuclear.
The first reason is energy flow density. The second reason is that nuclear fission reactions are physical reactions of atomic nuclei, while the combustion of wood, coal, gas, and oil are chemical reactions. Dissociation reactions release more energy. When a uranium-235 nucleus undergoes fission, it releases 200 million electron volts.
The third reason is that a uranium reactor, once installed and operating, may require a fuel rod change for 18 months. Nuclear power’s capacity factor – how much time it can run out of all the days of the year – is 92%, much higher than any other fuel source.
Gas-fired power plants
About 14,000 megawatts (14,000 MW) of electricity should be produced annually in gas-fired power plants until 2050. The advantage of a gas-fired power plant is that it can be built quickly from the four methods of power generation, which are nuclear energy, gas, coal, and water. Dave Flickinger, president of US-based Kiewit Power Group, told Power Magazine that “most gas-fired power plant projects are projects that often takes 28 up to 30 months to design, build and take advantage of a factory may be completed in 3 years.
It will be gas-fired power plants that should be built first, for example, to supply electricity to newly built hospitals.
Coal-fired power plants: cleaner and increasingly efficient
Coal-fired power plants can generate up to 13,000 (13,000 MW) of electricity. It is worth noting that new coal plants have been built in major countries such as China, India and Russia.
Are They operate with (44%) to (47%) thermal efficiency, and “clean coal;” are Their production process neutralizes or eliminates most of the emissions of nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide, lead, ash, and others.
Water power
As for hydroelectric power, and at least 14,324 megawatts of installed power generation that it will contribute, read the article by Mr. Karl Fairikin for details of this section.
Solar panels and wind turbines
We do not recommend the installation of solar panels and wind turbines, because their energy flow density and the amount of electricity they produce – compared to what the sugar cane is said to produce – is very low. This is a form of fraud, and it is a scam where only money is wasted.
Meeting the Needs of Emergencies and Scaling Up the Whole Medical System
My report today is only a summary of our long report that has been presented to you (Translator’s note: The purpose here is the full report of the Ibn Sina Operation Project under the title of Afghanistan’s Future Economic Miracle. Schiller was prepared by the experts of the Institute).
Having a modern public health system in Afghanistan does not only mean increasing the number of hospitals, doctor’s offices or health workers. In any country, public health services are always an integral part of an overall economic activity, especially in the fields of energy, water and industrial infrastructure. Investing in health services is not only necessary to create a strong health system, but also to achieve the goals or objectives of physical development.
Abu Ali Ibn Sina
Afghanistan was once a leading country in the field of medical sciences. So we should ask ourselves what the great physician, scholar and philosopher Ibn Sina would have done today after seeing the sad state of his father’s country. In his time, he wrote the famous book al-Qunun fi al-Tib, which was a main textbook in the field of medicine in Europe even until the 18th century. In the first step, we should rewrite this medical law according to today’s needs.
Ibn Sina’s basic approach to medicine was always pragmatic, for example the need for clean water and measures to prevent the spread of disease, something that preceded Pasteur and the development of microbiology by several centuries. Use it.
Basic or basic public health requests
Ibn Sina’s principles are still valid today:
The public health system works only when the basic needs of hygiene are met, that is, having clean drinking water and a sewage system. So that people do not come into contact with dirty water and sewage. In fact, dirty water is the leading cause of death in any backward or war-torn society. Meanwhile, providing safe drinking water is the most effective way to reduce mortality, especially among children.
Apart from clean drinking water, sewage system is also important. Every household should have an affordable toilet so that the waste water can be sent through the sewage system to a sewage plant or treatment plant. And then the filtered or treated wastewater is released back into the rivers or lakes. Without this, the chain between contaminated water, diarrheal diseases and high mortality cannot be broken.
The third pillar of public health that Ibn Sina emphasized is healthy food that strengthens the immune system of the human body against diseases. This is especially important as half of Afghanistan’s population is facing starvation, something that has been left behind by the destruction of US and NATO forces and their withdrawal.
Ibn Sina Health Services Group
In order to immediately improve the health service delivery situation in Afghanistan, we recommend the establishment of Ibn Sina Health Service Groups. By this we mean a combination of medical professionals and volunteers who will monitor the health situation and provide basic medical services throughout the country and correct and improve the sanitation situation with the help of simple equipment.
Ibn Sina’s Health Services Group can be used to carry out various tasks in rural areas such as establishing clean drinking water, sewage systems to prevent water borne diseases such as cholera, Prevent coli and salmonella.
Drugs and addicts
Another major problem is the treatment of heroin addicts and the overall availability of drugs, which is a legacy of the long occupation by US and NATO troops. All drug addicts must be freed from addiction and reintegrated into society and poppy cultivation, transportation and drug use in Afghanistan must be stopped immediately. Affected farmers should be supported by alternative crops.
Use of small drones for health services
One last specific suggestion: Why not use unmanned small planes to transport important medical supplies and accessories to remote areas of the country? This technology is already being tested in Africa, and Afghanistan will soon find out how it will work for them.
This is what Ibn Sina would have done.
Afghanistan at the crossroads of the new Silk Road
Afghanistan had a very important place along the ancient Silk Road in the transportation section, which was contrary to what today’s Afghanistan is isolated due to the lack of transportation infrastructure.
The backwardness imposed by the last decades and the hindrance of any kind of infrastructure left a legacy of no railway system, bad roads, and limited air traffic. But all this is about to change. Now, regional and international powers have come together to bring peace, stability and economic development to Afghanistan with well-defined plans with the help of the Belt and Road initiative.
Plans and movements are now in place at the national and international levels to pool resources and establish regional and continental land, air, digital and all modern communications and communications systems.
Location of Afghanistan
Afghanistan is positioned at the center for maximum connectivity with new development projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), the Asian-European Economic Union, and other initiatives.
Afghanistan officially joined the Belt and Road Initiative in May 2016.
Afghanistan is located between two corridors of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in Asia and Europe: the China-Central Asia-West Asia Corridor and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
A new railway system
It is a clear fact that two out of three parts of Afghanistan’s land is mountainous, it is a challenge for railways, as it has been for roads for centuries, but nothing is impossible.
Currently there is no railway system in Afghanistan. There are three railway lines at the border points for the transportation of goods: from Turkmenistan to Aqina and Tur ghundi, from Uzbekistan to Hairatan. The total length of these tracks is less than 400 km. But the priority projects now on the drawing board are:
First: The railway crossing the railway from the territory of Afghanistan
This railway project is one of Afghanistan’s most important railways, which is also called the Kabul Corridor and extends from Uzbekistan to Pakistan. This line has already been built from Termiz in Uzbekistan to Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Balkh province, through the mountains to Kabul, from there to Peshawar in Pakistan, then south to the Arabian Sea ports, and The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor extends to the east and northeast. Its length is 573 km in Afghanistan soil.
5 billion dollars of investment is needed for the development of this corridor and 20 million tons of cargo will be sent through this corridor annually.
Second: China-Afghanistan railway track
This railway is in the process of completion, only the Kyrgyz section has yet to be completed. This railway line starts from China’s Xinjiang province, extends from Kash ghar to the city of Osh in southern Kyrgyzstan, where containers or cargo are delivered to Uzbekistan by truck, and then by train through Uzbekistan and finally. The border city of Afghanistan reaches Hairatan.
Third: lapis lazuli Transit Highway
This is a deep line called lapis lazuli. Lapis lazuli is a bright blue precious stone that has given Afghanistan a good name and fame.
Named after the rock for which Afghanistan is famous, Afghanistan connects the Black Sea and Turkey through Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Georgia to the Mediterranean. Through this railway corridor, it starts from the land ports of Aqina in Faryab province of Afghanistan and Tur ghundi in Herat, Turkmenbashi port in Turkmenistan, through the Caspian Sea to Baku and Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, on the Black Sea coast. And Batumi passes through ports, through Turkish ports, cargo can be sent to Europe.
4th: Five Nations Rail Corridor:
The 2,100-kilometer route is a Belt and Road initiative (BRI) that passes through five Central Asian countries: Iran in the west, Afghanistan in the east, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and finally it extends to China. Afghanistan will have half the length of the railway. For example, the rail route between Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif will be 657 kilometers long.
Fifth: Chabahar Corridor
The Chabahar deep sea port in Iran is a multilateral route of the North-South International Transport Corridor, Chabahar Agreement was signed in May 2016 between Iran, India and Afghanistan. Cargo can be shipped to or from India through a port that India has invested in. This includes not only Iran and Afghanistan, but also Central Asia and Russia in the north.
Sixth: Borders are connected to each other
Other features of Afghanistan’s national railway program call for cross-border rail links at key locations. For example, the construction of a railway and cargo center in Panj Free Economic Zone on the border of Tajikistan and Afghanistan will be of mutual benefit.
Turkmenistan supports the further implementation of the Tur ghundi-Herat railway, which is currently 173 km long. Turkmenistan has promised to develop the Atamirat-Imam Nazar-Aqina-Andkhoi route and to develop the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan transport corridor as a whole to connect with China.
The roads
The following projects are priority projects for road extension:
Ring road
This 2200 km long two-lane national highway was originally built in the 1960s, but with the passage of time, most parts of this ring road have been destroyed. However, in order to increase the country’s production level, these and other new roads, especially the roads that connect Afghanistan with its six neighboring countries: Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Pakistan and even China on the Pamir mountains. Through the fire pit.
Modernization of roads
Construction of specific roads has started in Afghanistan. The task ahead is to develop this process. This means that the construction sector should expand. Improving roads requires the development of tools, especially concrete and masonry materials, machinery and skilled workers.
Transit modernization
In addition to improving the “hard” communication infrastructure, there are also supporting initiatives for “backward” communication. The four parts of this work have been explained in a new report in September 2022 in Kabul. This 25-page “Proposal of priority projects of the Ministry of Transportation and Civil Aviation” was published by the Department of Planning, Research and Project Implementation. This report indicates the reorganization of road use, the construction of rights-of-way gates, and the construction of transportation terminals to serve passengers and freight, and the construction of TIR parks to streamline international cargo transit.
Industry and work: a big challenge
There is no other source of waste in this world like unemployment, that is, in a visible or invisible way. The way to recovery for Afghanistan and the world is to effectively employ and encourage them so that the productive power of labor increases to a large extent, which is the only main source of value in the human economy.
In May 2020, a study by EIR stated that the world needs 1.5 billion new, productive jobs. It was published under the title. In this study, we considered not only formal unemployment, but also hidden unemployment and unemployment, especially in the informal economy sector.
From this research, we concluded that there are about 1.585 billion people in the world who have no physical economic value because they have been humanized by the British imperial system of the City of London and Wall Street during the past century and a half. They have changed and they spend their lives with the hope of today and tomorrow. This is a real unemployment rate of 46% in the world.
Using the same methodology in Afghanistan and the available statistics, which are available in the International Labor Organization (OIL) and the World Bank,
Using the. Unemployment from an economic point of view.
In the fight against unemployment in Afghanistan, we suggest that in the first five years, that is, until 2027, the number of people engaged in the industry should increase from 50,000 to 1.5 million people. In the second phase, it can increase to 4 million. Another goal is to increase the number of workers in the construction sector to 1.5 million people, today very few people are working in this sector. In addition to achieving self-sufficiency in food, there are very key industrial sectors that need to be addressed.
Cement products
Today, cement production in Afghanistan reaches only 93800 tons and 99% of the cement requirement is imported from Pakistan. It should be increased to 2.5 million to 3 million tons per year by building a series of factories.
Steel
Based on the data of 2018, around 33,000 tons of steel are produced in Afghanistan, which is very little. Steel production should be multiplied.
Machinery and equipment
Manufacturing machinery and equipment used to produce products, from automobiles to machines that process food, is a sector that needs top-down attention.
Machinery equipment is very important to keep the existing machinery working in all types of production scale. In the short term, these goods should be imported from outside in order to meet the need. But at the same time, ten machine parks should be established in key locations of the country, each of which will have workers from 10 to 30 people, and under the guidance of machine and equipment users/instructors. This work will require 200 quality machines for making goods.
Mining and metallurgy
Afghanistan’s resource base is rich in minerals, hydrocarbons and other precious resources, which are suitable for full industrial development. According to estimates, Afghanistan has 2.2 billion tons of iron reserves, which is among the top ten countries in the world in terms of extractable iron. Copper deposits are also abundant. Of particular value are rare earth minerals, including lithium, tantalum, and beryllium.
All these metals are essential for making modern electronic devices and medical devices.
There are also significant oil and gas deposits in the Amu Darya oil field in the north of Afghanistan, in the same geological formation that produces gas and oil for Turkmenistan. This oil and gas will be useful for the process of industrialization in Afghanistan.
In all these extractive industries, it is important that all of them are processed in Afghanistan as much as possible. This will not only add more value, but will also be important for upskilling the workforce.
Hydropower, the future infrastructure platform
Since I live in Paris and have never been to your beautiful country, I hope that my completely flawed observations will be matured through this conversation.
I don’t want to give you a list of specific recommendations today – you can find them in detail by reading the new report that some of you may have already seen – so instead I’ll talk about the necessary ways and its Focus on ways to deal with the challenges that lie before us.
I will start my speech with the ancient Afghan proverb that says: Kabul can be without gold, but not without now.
The good news is that so far the US Treasury and European banks have not been able to confiscate the winter snow of the Hindu Kush mountain range.
And as you know better than I do, this snow, when it falls in the spring, is Afghanistan’s primary source of water. Therefore, the fact that Afghanistan is a landlocked country with no access to the sea, capable of feeding and sheltering nearly 40 million people under the current harsh conditions, shows you that it is a kind of God. Giving is the ability to resist.
In fact, most Afghans have a more serious understanding of the importance of water for human life than other people on earth.
People in the West have forgotten the great efforts that their ancestors made to bring drinking water to every table. Either they are given to the doctors for the treatment of the sick or they are given to the farmers to produce food.
In addition to the 3 liters of water we all need to drink each day, the number of liters of fresh water required to live a basic normal life is beyond imagination. These figures are not known to our immediate understanding, but they are real and very challenging.
150,000 liters of water is needed to produce a car.
12760 liters of water is needed to produce a smart phone.
It takes 10,000 liters of water to produce a shirt and a pants.
8000 liters of water is needed to produce a pair of leather shoes.
And so on…
Afghanistan should plan its future economic development in the light of European experiences, which have been mentioned in the text of the full article.
Today, it is a clear fact that Afghanistan is not facing a shortage of water. Based on United Nations data, Afghanistan has five times more water supply capacity than France, which is a non-mountainous country. France today produces only 10% of its electricity from water dams.