Workshop E: Transportation
By Stephan Ossenkopp, Schiller Institute, Germany
My spirit is very uplifted by your hospitality and generosity. I am very happy to be here.
The global geopolitical landscape is complex, with many extremely dangerous flashpoints.
But the situation also offers us a great opportunity to avoid catastrophe. This opportunity lies in the desire of the vast majority of the world’s nations to lift themselves out of poverty and to make their voices heard in the international community. This global majority is using multilateral fora such as BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and similar organisations to gain strength through cooperation for joint economic development and dialogue between their cultures. Eurasia is one of the hubs of this process, and Afghanistan is at the geographical fulcrum for the further progress and success of this evolutionary development. Despite the current hardships, most of which have been imposed on the country by wars waged by outside powers, I am optimistic that in the coming years and decades we can see Afghanistan enter a period of increased prosperity and modernisation.
The Schiller-Institute
The Schiller Institute, which I am privileged to represent here today, is an international think tank or movement of ideas that has been publishing and discussing its ideas for more than five decades. Initiated by the late thinker and statesman Lyndon LaRouche and his wife Helga, it has become a sought-after venue for the discussion of proposals and initiatives for a just economic order and a respectful exchange between the cultures, religions and traditions of the world. The underlying concept is peace through development and peaceful consultation.
The Schiller Institute has worked in particular with the governments of developing countries and, more generally, with the non-aligned nations of the global South. In parts of the West, however, its leaders were and are politically targeted. Nevertheless, hundreds of conferences and seminars have been held, including in the US and Europe. Publications were produced in many languages. From development plans for Africa, Southwest Asia and India to concepts such as the European Productive Triangle and the Eurasian Landbridge. The best known of the Schiller Institute’s ideas is the New Silk Road, also called the World Landbridge. This World Landbridge is the most comprehensive global development programme to date. It consists of a vast network of proposed transport routes to link all continents and nations as a backbone to enable each nation to develop a physical economy that will ensure the prosperity of its people.
By Stephan Ossenkopp, Schiller Institute, Germany
Significance of Connectivity
The section on Afghanistan in the Schiller Institute’s World Landbridge Report opens with the observation that “if any nation can be declared to be the most in need of the New Silk Road, it is Afghanistan.” It continues: “If nations are to escape from the backwardness and instability to which they have been condemned by centuries of colonial looting and “technological apartheid” then investment in connectivity, infrastructure, mechanization, and industrialization is the only path.”
In this workshop we will look at the issue of connectivity for Afghanistan, with a particular focus on rail connectivity. This refers to the construction of both internal and external railways. Connecting Afghanistan to its neighbours, but most importantly to the most vibrant centres of economic growth and trade, is key to this endeavour.
Afghanistan is a landlocked country, ranked 9th in area, 3rd in population, but only 40th in terms of economy. Only African countries such as Malawi and Burundi have a lower GDP among landlocked countries. There are landlocked countries in Europe, but they are connected to their neighbours and have modern rail infrastructure, etc., including Switzerland, a mountainous landlocked country. Afghanistan shares borders with 6 countries, namely China, Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, opening up immense potential for connectivity, port access, market access and joint development. Although Afghanistan’s infrastructure links with its 6 neighbours remain rudimentary, there are promising things underway
Key Projects
The mission statement of the Afghanistan Rail Authority speaks for itself: “In order to connect with commercial and economic centers of the region and the world, the establishment, development and organization of an advanced railway network that can effectively contribute to the economic development, health, education and welfare of the people of Afghanistan. It can lead to the development of private sector investment and can also contribute to regional security and stability.”
This is, in a nutshell, what connectivity will achieve.
There are several key connectivity projects that are now high on the priority list. I would like to highlight two of them first: the Trans-Afghan Railway, which enters Afghanistan from Uzbekistan and has two points of entry into Pakistan, and the Five Nations Rail Corridor, which will link Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and China. These two projects alone will connect Afghanistan to Central Asia, to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor with links to the ports of Gwadar and Karachi, to the Iranian network extending into West Asia and to the port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman, and, very importantly, to China’s Xinjiang region with modern links to China’s powerful manufacturing and technology landscape.
The Chabahar Corridor
Work is currently underway to connect to Iran by completing the 225 km standard gauge line from Herat City in Afghanistan to Khaf in Iran. The project began in 2007 and opened in December 2020. A trial freight run was completed on 9 May this year, and an agreement was recently signed between the Afghan Railways and the Iranian Railway Consortium to begin work on a fourth section on 11 October 2023. Trade between Afghanistan and Iran is worth $2 billion a year and is expected to grow to $10 billion. The Khaf-Herat line is expected to gradually increase traffic to 1 million passengers annually at a speed of 160 km/h and 6 million tonnes of goods per year. This project is steadily improving political, cultural and economic relations between Iran and Afghanistan. As mentioned above, the railway will bring the deep sea port of Chabahar in south-eastern Iran within reach of Afghan exports and imports, and connect it to international sea routes.
The North South Corridor
Chabahar Deep Sea Port is also the outlet of the emerging 7200 km long multimodal International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The port acts as one of the hubs for trade between Russia, Iran and India. The heavy sanctions against Iran, and now Russia, have given INSTC a significant boost. When completed, it will create a trade artery from St Petersburg through the Caucasus or Caspian Sea to Iran and finally to India and the Indo-Pacific. Afghanistan will be able to tap into this vast connectivity project by linking up with the Iranian network, in particular the Chabahar port. Russia and Iran are not only promoting the INSTC project, they are also putting up the money to make it happen as quickly as possible. At the end of October this year, Iran and Russia, which together own almost 70 per cent of INSTC’s shares, announced that they would invest $36 billion in the project, including the purchase of containers and ships.
The Five Nations Rail Corridor
I have already mentioned the line from Khaf in Iran to Herat Province in Afghanistan. The Five Nations Rail Corridor will continue this line to Mazar-e-Sharif, enter Tajikistan, cross the southern core of Kyrgyzstan and and enter China’s Xinjiang province to reach the city of Kashgar, or Kashén in Mandarin Chinese (喀什). The Five Nations Railway Corridor, FNRC, will have a total length of 2000 km. This route had already been included in the plans of the Regional Economic Cooperation Conference on Afghanistan, or RECCA, since November 2017, after RECCA held one of its most significant conferences in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, with the aim of “restoring Afghanistan’s historic role as a land bridge and convergence point between Central Asia, South Asia, China, the Middle East and Europe”.
The Trans Afghan Rail Project
The same statement cites Uzbekistan as a strong supporter of the implementation of another signature rail link, the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan route from Termez to Mazar-e-Sharif, Kabul to Peshawar, including the necessary tunnels and bridges: this is often referred to as the Trans-Afghan Railway project.
Once in Pakistan, this railway can be linked to one of the BRI’s flagship projects, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which runs along several routes to the seaports of Gwadar and Karachi on the Arabian Sea. Both China and Pakistan have expressed support for Afghanistan’s inclusion in the CPEC project to improve connectivity. In addition, an Afghan railway delegation has travelled to Pakistan in early 2023 to discuss bilateral cooperation with the Pakistan Railways, including the Trans-Afghan Railway. The route for the UzbekistanAfghanistan-Pakistan line was finalised at a joint meeting in Pakistan in July 2023.
July 17, 2023, official of Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan met to revive ambitious plans to complete the railway by 2027, and ship 15 million tons of goods annually by 2030.
By 10 August, joint technical teams from Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Pakistan had completed a new field survey covering 780 km from Mazar-e-Sharif in Balkh province through Samangan, Aybak, Baghlan, Bamiyan, Maidan Wardak, Logar to Torkham town on the Pakistani border. The route would cross three major river basins and connect centres where more than nine million people live.
In August 2023, Afghanistan’s Minister of Commerce and Industry approached Kazakhstan and Russia about joining forces to build the railway. On 27 October, the head of Afghan Railways, Mullah Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharaft, travelled to Russia to discuss the Trans-Afghan project and urged that it be launched as soon as possible. The opportunity should be used to the maximum in its implementation. Dimitri Rivok reaffirmed Russia’s commitment to the initiative and expressed the importance of the Trans-Afghanistan Project and its special value for Russia.
The Afghan Ministry of Industry and Trade said in a statement on 31 October that Uzbekistan and Afghanistan had agreed to expand business by up to $3 billion and to keep the Hairatan port open 24 hours a day from the beginning of November.
The director of the Pakistan-Afghan Joint Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PAJCCI), Sarhadi, said: “If the two countries complete the project, it will be a game changer for a united Eurasia; this railway can truly become a beating heart of regional trade, connecting China, Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asian nations. Sarhadi said the Trans-Afghan Railway project had immense potential to transform the region
While this all sounds very promising, the project will require significant additional funding, and Sharaft is calling on international organisations to invest in the project and provide loans.
By Stephan Ossenkopp, Schiller Institute, Germany
Road Connectivity
Afghanistan has approximately 35,000 km of roads, of which almost 18,000 are paved, including the 20 existing highways between major cities, with the remainder being unpaved sand or gravel roads. The upgrading and expansion of the national road network is obviously a major undertaking, providing connectivity to all cities, towns, and rural areas. The 2,200-kilometre double-lane ring road is undoubtedly one of the backbones on which much of the country’s freight is transported, and it needs to be maintained and continually improved.
Afghanistan’s mountainous terrain requires the use of modern tunnel boring technology to construct tunnels where steep and narrow roads make transport very difficult, especially in winter conditions.
One of the priority reconstruction projects is an 80-km mountain road, the Salang Pass through the Hindukush Mountain range. Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the deputy prime minister for economic affairs, inspected the Salang Pass reconstruction project last Monday, accompanied by the acting minister of public works, Mohammad Issa Sani. The Salang Highway is of immense importance as a vital trade and transit route in Afghanistan. To date, 80 percent of the work has been completed and the project is expected to be completed and inaugurated soon. The reconstruction of the Salang Highway is expected to significantly improve trade and transit between Central and South Asia through Afghanistan.
There is one very particular road and development project which is discussed between Afghanistan and China in the context of reopening of Silk Road trade routes: the Wakhan Corridor, the roughly 100 km wide and 350 km long valley route in the East that connect the Afghan and Chinese border. Commerce minister Azizi has said this could become a reliable route of trade between the two countries.
The shift towards Asia
There are many more important projects and elements that I cannot mention here, but which can be taken up and discussed during our discussion. The momentum for Afghanistan’s economic miracle comes from the comprehensive vision of the Afghan nation as a whole, and from sharing that vision with its neighbours and the global majority moving in the same direction.
China was home to almost a billion extremely poor people, but the country has taken a strategic turn that has come to be known as reform and opening up. Of course, China is not a landlocked country, but it has also been largely destroyed and oppressed by colonialism, civil war and cruel occupation. No sane person can deny the transformation that China has undergone. Afghanistan can do the same, albeit with its own national and cultural peculiarities. China has also built connectivity projects in mountainous regions, high plateaus and similar adverse conditions. The technology exists and will become more widespread in the future.
We have to assume that Afghanistan is a key strategic link between West Asia and East Asia, and between Central Asia and South Asia. The global majority, the real core of the world community, lives here and is connected to Africa and the Pacific nations. The geopolitical confrontation, mainly led by the US and UK governments and some powerful European elites, with the Islamic world, Russia and China has hit a brick wall. Most countries are reorienting themselves towards China and Russia, or maintaining a neutral position like India, ASEAN and others.
Africa wants to rid itself of the last vestiges of colonialism. We are witnessing a historic anti-hegemonic movement that is doing everything in its power to create a world system of real justice and solidarity. The West, which has so far been unwilling to realise that it would benefit from cooperating with this movement and suffer if it rejected it or cut itself off from it, must be made to correct its mistakes and take responsibility, especially when it comes to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
By Stephan Ossenkopp, Schiller Institute, Germany
Connectivity of the future
This must go far beyond crocodile tears and temporary relief. Afghanistan’s food insecurity, energy shortages and other vulnerabilities must be overcome by building an Afghan national economy in which everyone can work and prosper. The transport and connectivity platform we are discussing today is the foundation for this. Putting Afghanistan on the path to more trade, more exchange, will also reduce the potential anxieties of countries.
Connectivity, of course, has many other aspects that are sure to be discussed or presented at future events. People-to-people exchanges, the Digital Silk Road bringing 5G and satellite technology to meet economic and communication needs, high-speed rail, magnetic levitation, space exploration.
There are no limits to growth if it is backed by real ideas. This should make us determined to overcome obstacles, individually and collectively, to create a better future for all.